Archive for nglreturns.myfreeforum.org Nglreturns is a forum to discuss religion, philosophy, ethics etc...

NGLReturns Daily Quiz - Play here!
 



       nglreturns.myfreeforum.org Forum Index -> Nature
Lexilogio

Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
Jim

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Lexi:
NO.
Two out of the last three Christmasses here ( West Scotland) have been snowbound. Walking with a long cane is murder in the snow, especially if it's eighteen inches deep as it was last year. Two years ago, the white stuff started in mid December and lasted till Hogmanay. That meant I had to phone round elderly relatives on Dec 17 - my Mother's funeral - and tell them not to come. After the Church service, it took us three quarters of an hour to get to the crematorium ( normally a fifteen minute jaunt) We almost missed the slot. We had to cut the service short, then hope like heck we could make it back before we were snowed in.
As far as I'm concerned, a nice, steady downpour would be just fine!
IvyOwl

Oh Jim what problems you had to face at a difficult time!

I agree, I'm not hoping for a white Christmas either. Too may peoples travel plans will be disrupted.

I do love the snow and still at 62 will build snowmen (purely to amuse the little boy next door you understand ) but not at Christmas with so many people looking forward to seeing their families and having to travel.

I see there is a 10% chance of my county having a white one!

IvyOwl
Jim

My Mum died in faith, so I've no concerns there. We had to cancel the tea in a local hall due to the weather, but a few of us went for a meal. The minister remarked that the only one who was remotely warm today was my mum!
Actually, when the snow is that bad, I'm virtually housebound. I wish someone would invent a white cane with either A; an inbuilt furnace, or B; an attached snowplough.
Lexilogio

I love the snow - but last year was difficult at times. There were five days when I simply could not get the car out (due to deep snow on the road) - and had to walk into work.

This year I've invested in a proper snow shovel for clearing the drive, and am considering buying snow grips for shoes - for that icy stage when the snow has melted.
cymrudynnion

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Lexilogio wrote:
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
Most definately can we have 6' of white fluffy stuff please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rob

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Lexilogio wrote:
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
 Find our your chances?
Lexilogio

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Rob wrote:
Lexilogio wrote:
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
 Find our your chances?


Typo. Have you tried the link?
Ketty

Another snow lover here!  I'm like an excited child when I first see those beautiful flakes starting to fall.
Rob

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Lexilogio wrote:
Rob wrote:
Lexilogio wrote:
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
 Find our your chances?


Typo. Have you tried the link?
 No, why would I?
Lexilogio

Re: Dreamin/ of a White Christmas?

Rob wrote:
Lexilogio wrote:
Rob wrote:
Lexilogio wrote:
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

Find our your chances
 Find our your chances?


Typo. Have you tried the link?
 No, why would I?


Because you can see what percentage of chance there is for snow at Christmas where you are.

I have a 30% chance. Which I've had for the last 3 years. I did get some last year....
genghiscant

Nobody can predict the weather with any accuracy more than five days ahead. Any further than that & it's a pure guess, there are just too many variables.
Lexilogio

genghiscant wrote:
Nobody can predict the weather with any accuracy more than five days ahead. Any further than that & it's a pure guess, there are just too many variables.


Well, not a pure guess... There are statistical probabilities depending on certain variables. But it can't be predicted with certainty.
genghiscant

Quote:
genghiscant wrote:
Nobody can predict the weather with any accuracy more than five days ahead. Any further than that & it's a pure guess, there are just too many variables.



Quote:
Well, not a pure guess... There are statistical probabilities depending on certain variables. But it can't be predicted with certainty.


Statistics will only give you trends. Predictions for this winter are impossible. For example, the severe winter for the south last year was at complete variance with the preceding 15 years & came as a bolt out of the blue. Nobody predicted it. If the trend of the last 16 years holds good, then it should be another mild winter in the south. But you just never know, it's impossible to tell.
genghiscant

Quote:
Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes or weather satellites as inputs to the models.

Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.

Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to about only six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Although post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions, a more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations used to simulate the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction
Lexilogio

genghiscant wrote:
Quote:
genghiscant wrote:
Nobody can predict the weather with any accuracy more than five days ahead. Any further than that & it's a pure guess, there are just too many variables.



Quote:
Well, not a pure guess... There are statistical probabilities depending on certain variables. But it can't be predicted with certainty.


Statistics will only give you trends. Predictions for this winter are impossible. For example, the severe winter for the south last year was at complete variance with the preceding 15 years & came as a bolt out of the blue. Nobody predicted it. If the trend of the last 16 years holds good, then it should be another mild winter in the south. But you just never know, it's impossible to tell.




       nglreturns.myfreeforum.org Forum Index -> Nature
Page 1 of 1
Create your own free forum | Buy a domain to use with your forum